Thursday, December 3, 2009

North Korea Revalues Currency, Destroying Personal Savings

By Blaine Harden
The Washington Post
Wednesday, December 2, 2009

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/12/01/AR2009120101841.html

TOKYO -- Chaos reportedly erupted in North Korea on Tuesday after the government of Kim Jong Il revalued the country's currency, sharply restricting the amount of old bills that could be traded for new and wiping out personal savings.

The revaluation and exchange limits triggered panic and anger, particularly among market traders with substantial hoards of old North Korean won -- much of which has apparently become worthless, according to news agency reports from South Korea and China and from groups with contacts in North Korea.

The currency move appeared to be part of a continuing government crackdown on private markets, which have become an essential part of the food-supply system in the chronically hungry North.

In recent years, some market traders have stashed away substantial amounts of cash, while establishing themselves in profitable businesses that the government struggles to control.

But under the rules of the new currency system, the wealth of these traders has largely disappeared, unless it is held in euros, dollars or Chinese yuan.

The revaluation replaces 1,000-won notes with 10-won notes but strictly limits the amount of old currency that can be exchanged, news reports said.

According to two Web-based groups with sources in the North, that limit was set Monday at 100,000 won, which at current black-market rates amounts to $40. All North Korean currency that individuals possess in excess of that amount becomes worthless under the revaluation.

Amid widespread protests, the limit was raised to 150,000 won in cash and 300,000 won in bank savings, according to DailyNK, an online news organization that has informants in the North.

"I worked like a dog for two months for the winter, but the money became useless paper overnight," a resident of Sinuiju, a city that borders China, was quoted as saying on the Web site of Good Friends, a South Korea-based aid organization with informants in the North.

China's official New China News Agency said in a report from Pyongyang, the North Korean capital, that state-run shops were closed Tuesday as sales staff posted new prices on goods.

The exchange of old currency for new began Monday and will end Sunday, the news agency said, adding that the government did not explain why the revaluation had occurred.

In the past year, North Korea has put increasing pressure on local markets, closing several and limiting the range of goods that can be sold in them.

The government has also criminalized everyday market behavior while creating a new kind of gulag for those it deems economic criminals, according to a report released this fall by the East-West Center, a research organization established by Congress to promote understanding of Asia.

The report says security forces in North Korea have broad discretion to detain without trial nearly anyone who buys or sells in the local markets. But if traders can pay bribes, security officials will often leave them alone, the report says.

If the currency move substantially cripples the operation of local markets in the North, the consequences could be severe for the millions who depend on them for food. U.N. officials have estimated that as much as half the calories consumed by North Koreans come from food bought in markets.

South Korean officials said last month that North Korea appears to be on the brink of another severe food crisis, with stocks of food likely to run short by March.

For further reading:
"North Korean misery as currency evaporates", The Telegraph, December 3, 2009
"North’s currency action shocking to its citizens", JoongAng Daily, December 3, 2009
"North Koreans in shock as cash is 'banned'", Times Online, December 2, 2009
"North Korea Takes Aim at the Black Market", BusinessWeek, December 1, 2009
"North Korea Revalues Currency to Curb Black Market, Reports Say", Bloomberg, December 1, 2009

International Money Laundering: OECD Handbook for Tax Auditors

By Linda Friedman Ramirez
Extradition and Cross Border Criminal Defense News
Sunday, November 1, 2009

http://obtainingforeignevidence.blogspot.com/2009/11/international-money-laundering-oecd.html


This publication, Money Laundering Awareness Handbook for Tax Examiners and Tax Auditors, October 2009, is a primer on the mechanics and means to detect money laundering, with a discussion of how money laundering can be carried out through transfers to offshore banks, credit cards as well as international trade. From the report:
"In international literature, money laundering through trade is known as ‘Trade Based Money Laundering’. It is seen by various organisations, such as the FATF and the World Customs Organization as a key method to move and/or launder large amounts of money derived from crime. The movement of money can be visible through the payment of expenses and visible or not, by moving money via air transportation, road transportation or by smuggling with goods. Criminal proceeds often need to be transferred to another country, a criminal transaction must be settled or funds must at some time come back to the criminal. These are reasons for criminals to move capital with the capabilities and constructed legitimacy of international trade. The techniques are discussed hereafter."

Table of Contents:
  • Money Laundering
  • Role of Tax Examiners and Auditors
  • Money Laundering Indicators for Individuals
  • Tax Return Examination and Pre-Audit Indicators
  • Audit Indicators
  • Specific Indicators on Real Estate
  • Specific Indicators on Cash
  • Specific Indicators on International Trade
  • Specific Indicators on Loans
  • Specific Indicators on Professional Service Providers

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

Is China Going Crazy After Gold Reserves?

By David Lew
Commodity Online
Tuesday, December 1, 2009

http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Is-China-going-crazy-after-gold-reserves-23411-3-1.html

Once again, China is making news on the hottest commodity—gold. China, the largest producer and consumer of the yellow metal these days, has announced that it wants to build up gold reserves. And how much? China says the country is eager to step up gold reserves to a massive 10,000 tonnes in the next 10 years.

Is China going crazy after gold? Yes, it looks if the recent statements coming out from the Chinese government is any indication, China is going indeed crazy after the yellow metal. In fact, gold reserves began to become big news in April this year when China announced that the country had increased its gold holdings to 1054 tonnes from 454 tonnes in 2003. Since then, almost every country—China, India, Russia, Brazil and even Sri Lanka—have been making news by announcing that they all want to build more gold reserves.

Dipping dollar value, ongoing economic recession and stock market fluctuations are the main reasons for central banks of several countries to mull mopping up gold reserves these days. India’s Reserve Bank surprised most other central banks last month by buying 200 tonnes of gold from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). India is these days once again in the fray to buy additional gold reserves from the IMF.

Why is there a scramble for gold reserves by countries like China, India and Russia? Every country these days wants to diversify its foreign exchange reserves by acquiring gold and other hard assets in place of the US dollar that has been dropping in value in the last one year.

On Monday, a top Chinese official announced that the country is eager to increase its gold reserves to 6000 tonnes in the next 3-5 years and 10000 tonnes in the next 8-10 years. Big, golden ambition, indeed. But considering the fact that China has now 1054 tonnes of gold, taking the yellow metal reserves to 10000 tonnes in the next 10 years is going to be a challenging task.

Bullion analyst Mark Robinson says this is the biggest and most ambitious task that China has ever announced. “If China wants to take its gold reserves to 10000 tonnes in 10 years, the country needs to buy or acquire the yellow metal to the quantity of nearly 1000 tonnes per year,” points out Robinson. He says China might now go aggressive on gold production as the country has allocated big funds to find new gold mining destinations.

“China wants to emerge as the global leader in gold reserves. Given the aggressive play that China is showing on gold, it looks perhaps possible that China will emerge as the biggest holder of gold in the world in the next 10 years,” added Robinson.

Which are the countries that own the largest quantity of gold reserves now? Check out here:

**America is the world leader in gold reserves. The United States has 8133 tonnes of gold reserves as on September 2008 that accounts for 76.5% of its foreign exchange reserves.

**Germany has the second highest gold reserves at 3412.6 tonnes.

** France has 2508 tonnes of gold constituting 58.7% of its forex assets.

**Italy has 2451.8 tonnes of gold constituting 61.9% of forex reserves.

**China became the fifth biggest holder of gold reserves with 1054 tonnes.

**Switzerland has 1040 tonnes of gold reserves constituting 23.8% of total forex reserves.

**India which recently bought 200 tonnes of gold from IMF has 557 tonnes of gold reserves representing 3% of total forex reserves.

** The IMF, which currently holds 3,217 tonnes of gold, is the third-largest official holder of the precious metal. The IMF has made gold sales a key element of its new income model aimed at lowering its dependence on lending revenue to cover expenses.

For further reading:
"China to Increase Its Gold Reserves", Erik Bethel, December 1, 2009
"China, gold, and the civilization shift", Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, November 26, 2009

Sunday, November 29, 2009

Wildcat Banking in the Virtual Frontier

By Matthew Beller
Mises Daily
Tuesday, February 5, 2008

http://mises.org/story/2862

In a previous article, I conducted a basic analysis of the economy and monetary scheme of Second Life, a three-dimensional virtual world where users can create virtual goods and services and exchange them with one another. I showed that thus far, Linden Lab, Inc., the creator of Second Life, has taken a mostly hands-off approach to its economy, with the notable exception of its fiat currency scheme.

Unfortunately, Linden's aversion to paternalism changed in January with its announcement that it would be banning most interest-paying banks from Second Life. The announcement reads:

"As of January 22, 2008, it will be prohibited to offer interest or any direct return on an investment (whether in [Linden dollars (L$)] or other currency) from any object, such as an ATM, located in Second Life, without proof of an applicable government registration statement or financial institution charter. We're implementing this policy after reviewing Resident complaints, banking activities, and the law, and we're doing it to protect our Residents and the integrity of our economy."

This policy has strong parallels to the adoption of 19th-century banking regulations in the real world. These regulations were supposed to stop wildcat banking, where ambitious bankers expanded credit through risky loans until defaults led to insolvency and left their depositors empty-handed. Similarly, in Second Life, unregulated banks have offered demand deposits bearing interest rates of 40% or more, at least one of which never actually had any loans underlying its interest-bearing deposits.[1] Cases such as that are almost certainly fraud and should be adjudicated as such, but Linden's adoption of a draconian ban on all interest-paying banks, which had been preceded by a ban on gambling, has established a clear pattern of economic interventionism. This does not bode well for Second Life users, for as Ludwig Von Mises has taught us, middle-of-the-road policy leads to socialism.

Who Needs Virtual Banks Anyway?

Strangely enough, there is no need in a virtual world for "banks," in the strict sense of the term. In Second Life and many other virtual worlds, the software interfaces have robust and secure forms of money with integrated payment systems. Unlike the real world, where a bank provides a secure alternative to storing large amounts of money under one's mattress, there is no risk in Second Life of being burglarized or robbed at gunpoint by another avatar. Although there may be some risk of having one's account hacked, a virtual bank is presumably no more secure and is probably a higher-profile target than any one individual.

It is not my intent to quibble over semantics, but it is necessary to identify the actual function of "banks." In the real world, it is to warehouse one's money, but in Second life, the nonfraudulent banks could be better described as either investment funds, where depositors are promised some portion of the yield generated by the fund's investments, or as brokerage accounts that allow depositors to invest among the different stocks offered on the bank's associated exchanges. While some banking institutions offered these services in addition to their interest-bearing accounts, those institutions that do not pay interest appear to be unaffected by the ban.

Wildcat Banking

Banks with no underlying loans and no ability to redeem all deposits, such as the one mentioned before, are essentially Ponzi schemes, and therefore fraudulent. But what about a bank that actually does extend loans, though to the point that it does not have enough reserves to cover all of its demand deposits, i.e., what about fractional-reserve banks? Are they committing fraud? Murray Rothbard explains, in the context of gold being used as money:

"It is true that the note or deposit does not actually say on its face that the warehouse [bank] guarantees to keep a full backing of gold on hand at all times. But the bank does promise to redeem on demand, and so when it issues any fake receipts, it is already committing fraud, since it immediately becomes impossible for the bank to keep its pledge and redeem all of its notes and deposits. Fraud, therefore, is immediately being committed when the act of issuing pseudo-receipts takes place. Which particular receipts are fraudulent can only be discovered after a run on the bank has occurred (since all the receipts look alike), and the late-coming claimants are left high and dry." [original emphasis][2]

The charge against unregulated fractional-reserve banks in the real world was that they would issue more bills of credit than they could possibly redeem and that these bills of credit would circulate as money, leading to inflation, boom, and bust when the banks defaulted on their deposits. That much was true. However, the regulations that were adopted simply sought to limit the fraud to a manageable level, in contrast to a free market, which would have had the tendency to eliminate it altogether.

In the case of Second Life, the prospect of inflation caused by wildcat banks is not a practical concern. I am not aware of any notes issued by a bank in Second Life ever circulating as money. This is because it would be highly impractical for that to occur. As mentioned before, the L$ enjoys a strong competitive advantage over any other would-be moneys because it is part of the payment system integrated into the default Second Life software client. Furthermore, one can be sure that Linden would move swiftly to protect its highly-profitable fiat currency scheme from any competition, just as the federal government raided NORFED for promoting an alternative real-world monetary scheme based on precious metals.

In actuality, the only entity involved in this discussion that is inflating the money supply is Linden itself. Linden has created about US$14.6 million worth of L$ with no backing whatsoever.[3] Although the L$ apparently falls outside the federal government's definition of money (this can be inferred because Linden hasn't been shut down), it clearly functions as a medium of exchange and is very much indeed money. This evasion of the legal definition of money has parallels to the dubious accounting practices that often accompany corporate scandals, where financial statements technically comply with the rules that govern them, but paint a picture that does not reflect reality.

"Rather than being fraudulent, the L$ is simply a terrible solution for its supposed ends…"

A natural question to ask, then, is whether or not Linden is committing fraud by creating money out of thin air and selling it to people for US$. The answer is no — from a natural-law perspective at least. Linden explicitly describes the nature of the L$ in its terms of service and states that they are not redeemable for US$. Reading closely, it even appears that, for all practical purposes, they are actually Linden's property.[4] Rather than being fraudulent, the L$ is simply a terrible solution for its supposed ends, to provide a stable medium of exchange that will allow for a robust and growing economy. Using the L$ is like implementing a monetary scheme during wintertime that uses scoops of ice cream as money. It could work pretty well for a little while, but come springtime, it would result in a huge mess.

As shown above, the fractional-reserve banking occurring in Second Life is not inherently inflationary and would not have led to boom and bust in and of itself. Accordingly, Linden's justification of banning all interest-paying banks in order to "protect the integrity of its economy" is either ignorant or disingenuous (probably the former). The other justification Linden provided was to "protect its Residents," presumably from the threat of fraud, which really means to favor one group (naïve depositors) at the expense of another (lenders, the entrepreneurs whose businesses they capitalize, and all of the consumers who would purchase goods from those entrepreneurs). This favoritism raises some very obvious questions regarding the ethics of the ban.

The Ethics of Virtual Interventionism

For classical liberals in favor of property rights and opposed to any form of interventionism, the question of whether or not Linden's ban should be considered unjust is not as straightforward as it might seem. To make this determination, we must first establish what rights Second Life users have. The basis of my argument will be natural rights, particularly as elaborated by Murray Rothbard in The Ethics of Liberty.

Proponents of natural rights generally hold that one can make an unclaimed, scarce natural resource his property by mixing his labor with it. In Second Life, one can mix his labor with atomistic objects to produce a desirable good. Having created said good, one retains the sole ability (aside from Linden) to reproduce, sell, or otherwise dispose of it. If the story were to end here, it would appear that Second Life users have natural rights over their creations; but alas, it is not so simple. This is because the natural right of property is not derived from the artificial nature created by Linden, but from the nature of human existence in the real world. Although some Second Life users may wish to deny it, Second Life is very much a part of the real world. Stubbornly rejecting this notion will not lead to any benefit, just as one who rejects the idea that the Earth is a sphere will probably never achieve space travel, and one who rejects the idea that water is necessary for human life will surely die of thirst.

Given that goods in Second Life are in fact real, just like a kitchen table or an automobile, it quickly becomes apparent that they are very much like, if not the same as, intellectual property (IP). This observation complicates the discussion because it turns out that there is not a unanimous consensus among classical liberals on whether or not IP constitutes property from a natural rights perspective. Ayn Rand and others have argued that it does. Taking the opposite stance, Roderick Long and Stephan Kinsella have presented lucid and concise arguments against the legitimacy of intellectual property.

Adopting the view that IP is not property, one still runs into problems because goods in Second Life are not pure information; they are specific instances of information. Just as the line of reasoning presented by Long and Kinsella would allow a particular hardback book to be considered property as a scarce instance of information, so too might be the configuration of electrons on Linden's computer servers.

Having stirred the pot of whether or not virtual goods in Second Life should be considered the property of their creators, I leave the reader with perhaps an unsatisfying conclusion: it is unclear.

The uncertainty arises from the complexity of Second Life's terms of service, the fact that parts of the terms of service rely on the unnatural concept of IP as property, and the ultimate ambiguity of whether or not Linden, who owns the servers on which the goods are being created, ever grants title to its users for instances of information on its servers. It might be like a manufacturing plant, where the owner of the plant retains title to the goods being labored on by employees, or it might be more like a pottery workshop where the workshop provides tools, raw materials, and storage, yet the makers of the pots are granted title to their creations. My personal inclination is to say that it is more like the former and that Second Life users do not possess any natural rights over their creations. Consequently, I do not believe any economic intervention by Linden to be fundamentally unjust.

One Lesson for Linden

Linden's ban on interest-paying banks may not be unjust, but that does not mean that it should be condoned. To draw such a conclusion would be to confuse morality with ethics. Just as one might believe, for instance, that it should not be considered a crime to smoke cigarettes, drink alcohol, or do hard drugs, one might at the same time believe that all three practices are morally objectionable and that they would all lead to suffering. So too, I believe that Linden's ban of interest-bearing banks is a poor policy, though I ardently respect their right to adopt it.

I also have some sympathy for Linden in adopting this ban, as it might have been due to pressure from federal regulators. Because Linden falls under the jurisdiction of the United States, it is therefore subject to the threat of coercive force if it does not follow regulators' biddings. But sympathy aside, policies such as the ban on interest-paying banks incentivize further reckless behavior by users who have made foolish decisions, and they frustrate and hinder the entrepreneurs who are producing the goods that attract people to Second Life.

Linden policymakers would do well to learn and memorize to look not merely at the immediate, but at the longer effects of any act or policy, and to trace the consequences of that policy not merely for one group but for all groups.

Matthew Beller is a former employee of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and currently works for the Securities and Exchange Commission in Los Angeles.

Notes

[1] In a panel hosted by the Metanomics series, one virtual banker remarks around time 19:50 that his bank, which has paid annualized interest rates of 44% and higher, had no loans underlying deposits. Whether or not there were any other assets underlying the deposits that could provide sufficient yield to pay the promised rates of return is uncertain.

[2] Murray Rothbard, What Has Government Done to Our Money? p. 27.

[3] According to official Linden statistics as of the end of November, 2007, the total L$ supply was about 3.9 billion Linden dollars. Using a rough calculation with the typical exchange rate of L$270=US$1, Linden has earned about US$ 14.6 million in revenues by selling these L$.

[4] As of January 17, 2008, the terms of service read, in part, "You agree that Linden Lab has the absolute right to manage, regulate, control, modify and/or eliminate [L$] as it sees fit in its sole discretion, in any general or specific case, and that Linden Lab will have no liability to you based on its exercise of such right."

For further reading:
"Tipping and Money Laundering in SecondLife", Twisted Second Life, November 22, 2009
"Linden Dollar and Virtual Monetary Policy", Philip Ernstberger, January 23, 2009
"Virtual Money Laundering and Fraud", Kevin Sullivan, Bank Information Security, April 3, 2008
"Virtual bank's Second Life scheme raises real concerns", Los Angeles Times, January 22, 2008
"Second Life Bans Traditional Banking", Earnest Cavalli, Game Life, January 9, 2008
"Bank Failure in Second Life Leads to Calls for Regulation", Bryan Gardiner, Wired, August 15, 2007
"Virtual exchanges get real", Francesca Di Meglio, BusinessWeek, August 13, 2007
"Second Life Community and Ginko", Benjamin Duranske, Virtually Blind, August 9, 2007
"The Coming Second Life Business Cycle", Matthew Beller, August 02, 2007
"SecondLife: Revolutionary Virtual Market or Ponzi Scheme?", Randolph Harrison, Capitalism 2.0, January 23, 2007

Saturday, November 28, 2009

U.S. Defers Bank Rules on Internet Gambling

The Wall Street Journal
Saturday, November 28, 2009

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125934218704666645.html

WASHINGTON -- The Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve are giving U.S. financial institutions an additional six months to comply with regulations designed to ban Internet gambling.

The agencies said Friday that the new rules, which were to take effect Dec. 1, would be delayed until June 1 of next year.

The rules seek to curb online gambling by prohibiting financial institutions from accepting payments from credit cards, checks or electronic fund transfers to settle online wagers.

The financial industry complained that the new rules would be difficult to enforce because they didn't offer a clear definition of what constitutes Internet gambling.

They had sought a 12-month delay in implementing provisions of the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act that Congress passed in 2006.

The Bush administration issued regulations to enforce the law in November 2008 and had set Dec. 1, 2009, as the date financial institutions would have to begin complying.

In a joint notice Friday, the Treasury and the Fed said several members of Congress had sought a delay, arguing that there was considerable support for new legislation to clarify current laws.

According to the joint release, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D., Nev.) and House Financial Services Chairman Barney Frank (D., Mass.), among other lawmakers, sent letters expressing concern that the law doesn't contain a clear definition of "unlawful Internet gambling."

Mr. Frank supports legislation that would roll back the 2006 law. He proposes allowing the Treasury Department to license and regulate online gambling companies that service American customers.

Sen. Jon Kyl (R., Ariz.) and Rep. Spencer Bachus (R., Ala.), however, had opposed delaying compliance, for reasons related to "the speculative nature of the problems raised by petitioners, the associations and other interest groups," the agencies' release said.

The two agencies said groups seeking a delay had provided sufficient reasons to justify a limited six-month delay. Financial organizations including the American Bankers Association had sent the agencies letters supporting a petition filed by gambling industry associations seeking a delay.

In September, a federal appellate court in Philadelphia upheld the 2006 law, rejecting a challenge from an association of offshore bookies that the federal prohibition was too vague and violated privacy rights.

U.S. bettors have been estimated to supply at least half the revenue of the $16 billion Internet gambling industry, which is largely hosted overseas.

For further reading:
"Treasury, Fed delay Internet gambling ban 6 months", Reuters, November 27, 2009
"Start-Ups Hedging Their Bets On Online-Gambling Legislation", Venture Capital Dispatch, November 27, 2009
"Representative Frank introduces bill to allow online gambling", Martin Merzer, May 6, 2009
"Bankers, poker players oppose Feds' online gaming rules", Emily Starbuck Gerson, January 8, 2008

Thursday, November 26, 2009

Vietnam Devalues Its Currency

By James Hookway and Alex Frangos
The Wall Street Journal
Thursday, November 26, 2009

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125912411180263533.html

Vietnam devalued its currency, the dong, by roughly 5% against the U.S. dollar, while also increasing interest rates in a bid to damp rising inflation.

The country's central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by one percentage point to 8%, effective Dec. 1.

Wednesday's devaluation -- Vietnam's third since June 2008 -- reflects strains on the economy caused in part by aggressive stimulus spending and low foreign reserves. It also highlights differences between Vietnam and its regional neighbors.

Vietnam is one of the only economies in Asia with both a fiscal budget deficit and a current-account deficit, a combination that puts pressure on the dong to weaken. Except for China, the region, along with other emerging markets such as Brazil, has seen its currencies strengthen this year as countries attract inflows of foreign capital.

It isn't clear how deeply the latest devaluation affects the rest of Asia. In theory, other trade-dependent nations in the region could potentially see their exports undercut by cheaper Vietnamese competitors, especially as currencies such Thailand's baht and Malaysia's ringgit continue to appreciate, said Tim Condon, head of Asian research at ING in Singapore. Already, regional officials are complaining about the effect on their exports as their currencies rise against China's yuan, which remains steady against the dollar.

Thai Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij said in a telephone interview that Thailand might see "a marginal impact" on its textiles and garments industries following Vietnam's devaluation, but the government doesn't anticipate a specific problem. "Vietnam has done this before, but it didn't really impact our export growth overall," Mr. Korn said.

The World Bank expects Vietnam's gross domestic product to climb a respectable 5.5% this year, compared with 6.2% in 2008. But the country's trade deficit continues to widen and dollar sales aimed at stabilizing the dong have shrunk foreign reserves to $16.5 billion compared with $22 billion at the start of the year, according to analysts' estimates.

By contrast, Vietnam's regional neighbors, such as China, Korea and Thailand all have added substantially to foreign-exchange reserves this year.

Last month, Vietnam's Finance Ministry warned the country likely would be unable to limit its trade deficit to its target of $10 billion in 2009 after hitting $8.7 billion in the first 10 months of the year.

To keep growth expanding this year, the government has pumped billions of dollars into its economy through subsidized loans and infrastructure spending. Economists say that has stirred inflationary fears and further eroded confidence in the dong, leading to hoarding of dollars and gold.

"This time our solution is to strongly intervene," State Bank of Vietnam Governor Nguyen Van Giau said.

Early indications show the government moves were helping to stabilize the dong. Black-market traders in Hanoi reacted with relief, as if they had been braced for a much more sweeping devaluation some time in the future. After the devaluation plan was announced, black markets in Hanoi were offering dollars for 19,500 dong, compared with 19,700 before the central bank made its announcement.

That compares with the official midpoint trading rate of 17,034 dong to the dollar on Wednesday, which will be set at 17,961 dong on Thursday following the devaluation.

Credit-rating firms also reacted positively. "When all is said and done, macroeconomic stability and prudent policies are better for an economy in the long run than short-sighted efforts to generate an unsustainably high rate of growth," said Tom Byrne, a sovereign regional credit analyst with Moody's in Singapore.

Vietnam is likely to boost interest rates further to contain any inflationary surge coming from the devaluation. Robert Prior-Wandesforde, chief Asian economist at HSBC in Singapore, expects to see interest rates reaching 11% by the end of next year.

For further reading:
"Dong Drops to Record Low, Stocks Slump After Currency Devalued", Bloomberg, November 26, 2009
"Vietnam Devalues Currency and Raises Interest Rates", The New York Times, November 25, 2009
"Vietnam dong tests new low in interbank market after devaluation", Reuters, November 25, 2009

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

US Mint to Suspend American Eagle Gold 1-Ounce Coins

By Frank Tang
Reuters
Wednesday, November 25, 2009

http://www.reuters.com/article/fundsFundsNews/idUSN2536556520091125

NEW YORK -- The U.S. Mint said Wednesday it will suspend sales of the popular American Eagle 1-ounce bullion coins as rising demand depleted its inventory.

"The United States Mint has depleted its current inventory of 2009 American Eagle 1-ounce gold bullion coins due to the continued strong demand for this product," the Mint told its authorized dealers in a memorandum on Wednesday.

November sales to date were at 124,000 ounces, higher than the 115,500 ounces sold in each month of September and October, the Mint said.

The Mint said it expects to resume sales in early December.

Increasing worries about inflation, a falling U.S. dollar and geopolitical tensions are prompting individual investors to take physical possession of gold coins and other bullion products due to the metal's appeal as a safe haven in financial and political crises.

Gold hit a record high at just under $1,190 an ounce on Wednesday due to a broadly lower dollar and renewed interest from central banks. Year to date, the metal has risen more than 35 percent.

Last year, the Mint had also briefly suspended sales of its American Eagle gold and silver coins due to high demand and a lack of coin blanks.

Produced from gold mined in the United States, the 22-karat American Eagles have been novel items among collectors and investors since their introduction in 1986. Each coin has a face value of $50 but it is sold by authorized dealers at a premium to the price of gold.